2024年4月份，我們可以下一個(gè)特別肯定的結(jié)論了：傳統(tǒng)獵頭公司正式進(jìn)入“加速死亡”時(shí)間階段，傳統(tǒng)獵頭公司如果還保持現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)營模式的話，90%以上的傳統(tǒng)獵頭公司會(huì)在2026年之前倒閉或者處于“勉強(qiáng)生存”的狀態(tài)。導(dǎo)致傳統(tǒng)獵企2024-2026年會(huì)大規(guī)模倒閉或者生存困難的根本原因有3個(gè)原因1：經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入緩慢增長期，人才供需關(guān)系發(fā)生根本性變現(xiàn)。其實(shí)很多人都沒有意識到，現(xiàn)在的以基層+中層為核心的獵頭行業(yè)根本就是在“空中樓閣”中搭建的，只是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展奇跡帶來的附屬產(chǎn)物，根據(jù)一般性經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律，獵頭行業(yè)原本是不應(yīng)該達(dá)到1150億的規(guī)模的（2019年獵頭行業(yè)市場規(guī)模，而同期整個(gè)SaaS行業(yè)規(guī)模才920億），中國經(jīng)濟(jì)再也不可能回到過去的年均7%-12%的高速發(fā)展期了，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入緩慢增長期，導(dǎo)致各行各業(yè)的人才供需關(guān)系發(fā)生根本性變化，企業(yè)對于基層+中層崗位使用獵頭招聘的需求不再變得緊迫甚至是可有可無。獵頭行業(yè)原有的大部分市場原本就應(yīng)該是內(nèi)薦、RPO、內(nèi)部招聘、招聘BPO的。2024-2026年，獵頭行業(yè)大部分市場會(huì)重新回歸內(nèi)薦、RPO、內(nèi)部招聘、招聘BPO。

In April 2024, we can draw a particularly definite conclusion: traditional headhunting companies have officially entered the stage of "accelerated death". If traditional headhunting companies continue to maintain their existing business models, more than 90% of them will go bankrupt or be in a "barely surviving" state before 2026. There are three fundamental reasons for the large-scale bankruptcy or survival difficulties of traditional hunting enterprises in 2024-2026: 1. The economy has entered a period of slow growth, and the fundamental realization of talent supply and demand has occurred. In fact, many people do not realize that the current headhunting industry, which is centered around grassroots and middle-level positions, is simply built in a "castle in the air". It is just a subsidiary product of China's economic development miracle. According to general economic laws, the headhunting industry should not have reached a scale of 115 billion yuan (the headhunting industry market size in 2019 was only 92 billion yuan, while the entire SaaS industry size was only 92 billion yuan during the same period). The Chinese economy can no longer return to the high-speed development period of 7% -12% per year in the past. The Chinese economy has entered a slow growth period, which has led to fundamental changes in the supply and demand relationship of talents in various industries. The demand for headhunting recruitment for grassroots and middle-level positions by enterprises has become less urgent or even optional. The majority of the headhunting industry's original market should have been for internal referrals, RPOs, internal recruitment, and hiring BPOs. From 2024 to 2026, most of the headhunting industry's markets will return to internal referrals, RPOs, internal recruitment, and hiring BPOs.

原因2：基金的去美元化+LP政府化是壓垮獵頭行業(yè)的最后一根稻草。基金的去美元化+LP政府化，加劇了這種困難，因?yàn)檫^去無數(shù)的熱門行業(yè)并不是真的需要那么多人才，而是美元資金強(qiáng)勢進(jìn)入后，導(dǎo)致短期內(nèi)人才需求失衡，短期內(nèi)人才失衡，企業(yè)對獵頭的需求會(huì)加劇，獵頭行業(yè)最喜歡短期內(nèi)失衡的行業(yè)，因?yàn)檫@意味著市場進(jìn)入搶人大戰(zhàn)，大部分人才招聘都是由獵頭來完成的。基金的去美元化以及美股IPO上市變得不安全后，整個(gè)VC投資圈處于遍野哀嚎的境地，過去曾經(jīng)每1-2年就會(huì)出現(xiàn)一次的大投資熱潮徹底成為了過去，遍數(shù)2012-2020年，美元資金鼎盛時(shí)期，在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、房地產(chǎn)、醫(yī)藥、半導(dǎo)體、金融科技、新能源、AI、消費(fèi)電子等無數(shù)領(lǐng)域，獵頭行業(yè)的鼎盛和美元化基金的投資熱潮其實(shí)是息息相關(guān)的，投資熱潮極大的刺激了企業(yè)使用獵頭招聘的決心。現(xiàn)在，潮水退了，大概率再也回不到過去的鼎盛投資時(shí)期了，獵企的黃金歲月隨之也消失了。

Reason 2: The de dollarization of funds and the politicization of LP are the last straw that crushes the headhunting industry. The de dollarization of funds and the politicization of LPs have exacerbated this difficulty, as countless popular industries in the past did not really need that much talent. Instead, the strong entry of US dollar funds has led to an imbalance in talent demand in the short term. In the short term, talent imbalance will intensify the demand for headhunters by enterprises. The headhunting industry prefers industries with short-term imbalances because it means that the market has entered a talent war, and most talent recruitment is completed by headhunters. After the de dollarization of funds and the listing of US stock IPO became unsafe, the whole VC investment circle was in a state of wailing. The big investment boom that used to occur every 1-2 years has completely become a thing of the past. From 2012 to 2020, during the peak period of US dollar funds, in countless fields such as the Internet, real estate, medicine, semiconductor, financial technology, new energy, AI, consumer electronics, the peak of headhunting industry and the investment boom of dollarized funds are actually closely related, and the investment boom has greatly stimulated the determination of enterprises to use headhunting for recruitment. Now that the tide has receded, it is highly likely that we will never return to the peak investment period of the past, and the golden years of hunting enterprises have also disappeared.

原因3：“降本增效”成為懸在HR招聘人員頭上的利劍，也是傳統(tǒng)獵企倒閉潮的開始。2024年，如果問哪一個(gè)領(lǐng)域的獵頭最難，一定是針對HR領(lǐng)域做單的獵頭，因?yàn)閴焊蜎]什么需求，在企業(yè)內(nèi)部，HR招聘人員自己都面臨著隨時(shí)可能下崗的問題，2024-2026年，HR招聘人員想要不失業(yè)，就需要在“降本增效”上做文章。在大環(huán)境不好時(shí)，“增效”是很難的，絕大部分高管在經(jīng)濟(jì)大環(huán)境不好時(shí)，都做不到“增效”，更不要說輔助部門的HR，大部分HR招聘人員不具備“增效”的能力，因此“降本”就成為了大部分HR招聘人員自保的首選，而降本最重要的手段有3個(gè)手段一：所有崗位招聘，先自己內(nèi)部招聘一篇，實(shí)在不行再找獵頭合作，減少成本手段二：原本20%的費(fèi)率，降低到12%-16%，根據(jù)目前獵企的經(jīng)營模式，很少有獵企在費(fèi)率12%-14%時(shí)依然能夠保持盈利的，更不要說和內(nèi)薦、RPO一個(gè)價(jià)格。手段三：原本走獵頭渠道的訂單，現(xiàn)在走內(nèi)薦、RPO、內(nèi)部招聘、駐場招聘、招聘BPO外包，這5種招聘形式能夠大幅度降低成本，最高成本甚至可以降低80%以上。HR招聘人員的“降本”措施能夠幫助HR招聘人員在企業(yè)證明自己的價(jià)值，不失業(yè)，但是卻會(huì)成為獵頭公司倒閉潮的開始，上面三個(gè)“降本”的措施，無論哪一個(gè)，傳統(tǒng)獵頭公司的成本結(jié)構(gòu)和經(jīng)營模式都很難玩轉(zhuǎn)。2024年，不管是獵企老板，還是獵頭顧問都需要提前為自己籌劃未來獵頭行業(yè)未來的獵企經(jīng)營模式主要是4種，這四種經(jīng)營模式的價(jià)值從低到高排序如下，以★表示價(jià)值的高低經(jīng)營模式1：成為小而美的專業(yè)獵頭公司（★）小而美的專業(yè)獵頭公司，需要具備以下條件1：公司規(guī)模不能超過15人2：獵企老板自己本人需要特別專業(yè)，對獵頭行業(yè)從行研、BD、訂單、信息、尋訪、溝通的各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)都要很精通，能夠快速培育新人成長或者自己做單能力超強(qiáng)。3：能夠啃骨頭單，能夠通過賦能型mapping尋訪其他獵企尋訪不到的稀缺性人才。4：公司起碼有1名資深行業(yè)專家，能夠大幅度提升其他獵頭顧問的交付成功率，這名資深行業(yè)專家是老板本人或者PM級別的資深合伙人現(xiàn)有的獵企，只有這種“小而美”的獵企能夠存活下來，其他的所有獵企我都不看好，包括純粹電話營銷型獵企、業(yè)務(wù)集中在中低端市場的中大型獵企、所謂的“阿米巴”模式獵企（換湯不換藥）、所謂的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+獵企（現(xiàn)有的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+獵企反而加劇了獵頭行業(yè)的崩潰）。小而美公司最大的問題是，既然獵企老板有能力經(jīng)營一家小而美的獵企，干什么不能成功？為什么非要堅(jiān)持去做一家吃力不討好的“小而美”獵企呢？很累，收益很一般。

Reason 3: "Cost reduction and efficiency improvement" has become a sharp sword hanging over HR recruitment personnel, and it is also the beginning of the wave of traditional hunting enterprises going bankrupt. In 2024, if you ask which field of headhunting is the most difficult, it must be headhunters who specialize in the HR field, because there is no demand at all. Within the company, HR recruiters themselves are facing the problem of being laid off at any time. From 2024 to 2026, if HR recruiters want to avoid unemployment, they need to focus on "reducing costs and increasing efficiency". When the overall environment is not good, it is difficult to "increase efficiency". The vast majority of executives cannot achieve "increase efficiency" when the economic environment is not good, let alone HR in auxiliary departments. Most HR recruiters do not have the ability to "increase efficiency". Therefore, "cost reduction" has become the first choice for most HR recruiters to protect themselves. The three most important means of cost reduction are: first, recruit internally for all positions, and if it is not feasible, then seek headhunting cooperation to reduce costs. Second, reduce the original 20% rate to 12% -16%. According to the current operating model of hunting enterprises, few hunting enterprises can still maintain profitability when the rate is 12% -14%, let alone internal recommendations and RP. O a price. Method 3: Orders that were originally placed through headhunting channels are now being recruited through internal referrals, RPO, internal recruitment, on-site recruitment, and BPO outsourcing. These five forms of recruitment can significantly reduce costs, with the highest cost even being reduced by over 80%. The "cost reduction" measures taken by HR recruiters can help them prove their value in the enterprise and avoid unemployment, but they can also become the beginning of a wave of headhunting companies going bankrupt. Regardless of which of the three "cost reduction" measures mentioned above, the cost structure and business model of traditional headhunting companies are difficult to handle. In 2024, both headhunting bosses and headhunting consultants need to plan ahead for their future business models in the headhunting industry. There are mainly four types of business models, ranked from low to high in value, represented by ★. Business model 1: Become a small and beautiful professional headhunting company (★). A small and beautiful professional headhunting company needs to meet the following conditions: 1. The company size cannot exceed 15 people. 2. The headhunting boss himself needs to be particularly professional and proficient in all aspects of the headhunting industry, including research, business development, orders, information, search, and communication. He should be able to quickly cultivate new talents for growth or have strong ability to make orders on his own. 3: Being able to tackle difficult tasks and explore scarce talents that other hunting companies cannot find through empowering mapping. 4: The company has at least one senior industry expert who can significantly improve the delivery success rate of other headhunting consultants. This senior industry expert is the existing hunting enterprise of the boss himself or the PM level senior partner. Only this "small and beautiful" hunting enterprise can survive, but I don't like all the other hunting enterprises, including pure telemarketing hunting enterprises, medium and large hunting enterprises whose businesses are concentrated in the middle and low end markets, the so-called "Amiba" model hunting enterprises (change the soup without changing the dressing), and the so-called Internet plus hunting enterprises (the existing Internet plus hunting enterprises have exacerbated the collapse of the headhunting industry). The biggest problem with a small and beautiful company is that since the owner of the hunting enterprise has the ability to run a small and beautiful hunting enterprise, why can't it succeed? Why insist on being a "small but beautiful" hunting enterprise that is difficult to please? Very tired, with average returns.

經(jīng)營模式2：轉(zhuǎn)型泛招聘解決方案的新型獵企（★）2024年，企業(yè)對獵頭公司的需求有且只有3種價(jià)值需求價(jià)值需求1：能夠啃骨頭單、能夠?qū)ぴL到其他獵企無法尋訪到的稀缺性+核心人才，這個(gè)價(jià)值對應(yīng)的是“小而美”公司的能力。價(jià)值需求2：低成本，2024年企業(yè)的主旋律是“降本增效”，企業(yè)放棄傳統(tǒng)獵頭公司的20%左右費(fèi)用率，轉(zhuǎn)而尋求成本更低的內(nèi)薦、RPO、內(nèi)部招聘、駐場招聘、招聘BPO外包，已經(jīng)成為大勢所趨。對應(yīng)企業(yè)的價(jià)值需求，有2種新型獵企經(jīng)營模式，分別是獵企轉(zhuǎn)型泛招聘解決方案的新型招聘BPO公司，幫助客戶大幅度降低成本獵頭顧問轉(zhuǎn)型行業(yè)人才圈層超級個(gè)體（經(jīng)營模式4）價(jià)值需求3：基于人才驅(qū)動(dòng)經(jīng)營的頂級、高級人才招聘

Business Model 2: New Hunting Enterprises Transforming into Comprehensive Recruitment Solutions (★) In 2024, there are only three value requirements for headhunting companies. Value requirement 1: the ability to tackle difficult tasks and find scarce and core talents that other hunting enterprises cannot find. This value corresponds to the ability of "small and beautiful" companies. Value Requirement 2: Low cost. The main theme for enterprises in 2024 is "cost reduction and efficiency improvement". Enterprises are abandoning the traditional headhunting company's expense ratio of around 20% and seeking lower cost internal referrals, RPOs, internal recruitment, on-site recruitment, and BPO outsourcing. This has become a trend. There are two new business models for hunting enterprises that correspond to their value needs, namely the new recruitment BPO company that transforms hunting enterprises into pan recruitment solutions, helping clients significantly reduce costs. Headhunting consultants transform into super individuals in the industry talent circle (business model 4). Value demand 3: Top and senior talent recruitment based on talent driven management

經(jīng)營模式3：轉(zhuǎn)型高端獵頭市場（★★★）2024-2026年，預(yù)計(jì)整個(gè)高端獵頭市場大概有200億以上的市場規(guī)模，獵頭高端市場有下面幾個(gè)特點(diǎn)1：進(jìn)入門檻極高，獵頭高端市場的高業(yè)績邏輯和中低端市場的高業(yè)績邏輯是完全不一樣的，技能和頂層思維沒有什么共通性，需要系統(tǒng)性的掌握高端市場的做單邏輯。2：利潤率極高，具備高端市場獵頭做單的能力，業(yè)績起步300萬+，具備高端人才圈層的，業(yè)績起步600萬+，因?yàn)殚T檻高，所以利潤率也極高。3：一定要具備和董事長/總裁對話能力，可以是大型公司董事長/總裁，也可以是高潛創(chuàng)業(yè)公司的董事長/總經(jīng)理，不具備該能力，業(yè)績基本好不起來，也不建議進(jìn)入高端獵頭市場。后面會(huì)建一個(gè)獵頭高端市場做單群，我會(huì)在群里免費(fèi)發(fā)放一些PPT資料，免費(fèi)的線下深度交流活動(dòng)等，助力部分資深獵頭顧問、想轉(zhuǎn)型高端市場的獵企老板，期望2024-2026年能夠盡可能的助力資深獵頭顧問轉(zhuǎn)型高端獵頭市場。獵頭高端市場做單群，大概5月份開始，可以加微信15371862559（獵頭行業(yè)布道者）

Business Model 3: Transformation into the High end Headhunting Market (★★★) From 2024 to 2026, it is expected that the entire high-end headhunting market will have a market size of over 20 billion yuan. The high-end headhunting market has the following characteristics: 1. The entry threshold is extremely high, and the high performance logic of the high-end headhunting market is completely different from that of the mid to low end market. Skills and top-level thinking have little in common, and it is necessary to systematically master the order making logic of the high-end market. 2: The profit margin is extremely high, with the ability to handle high-end market headhunting orders, with a starting performance of over 3 million. For those with a high-end talent circle, the starting performance is over 6 million. Due to the high threshold, the profit margin is also extremely high. 3: It is necessary to have the ability to communicate with the chairman/president, which can be the chairman/president of a large company or the chairman/general manager of a high potential startup company. Without this ability, the performance will not be good, and it is not recommended to enter the high-end headhunting market. I will create a high-end headhunting market group in the future, where I will distribute some free PPT materials, free offline in-depth communication activities, etc., to assist some senior headhunting consultants and headhunting business owners who want to transform into the high-end market. I hope to help senior headhunting consultants transform into the high-end headhunting market as much as possible in 2024-2026. For the high-end headhunting market, starting from around May, you can add WeChat 15371862559 (Headhunter Industry Evangelist) as a single group

經(jīng)營模式4：行業(yè)人才圈層超級個(gè)體（★★★★★）目前傳統(tǒng)獵頭的中低端市場，除了大概20%左右被“小而美”公司繼承下來，80%的市場將在2024-2026年被新型獵頭公司取代，新型獵頭公司主要指的是轉(zhuǎn)型泛招聘解決方案的新型獵企、行業(yè)人才圈層超級個(gè)體新型獵企，從對獵頭顧問的價(jià)值而言，行業(yè)人才圈層超級個(gè)體是最有可能幫助獵頭顧問、獵企老板實(shí)現(xiàn)財(cái)富自由的經(jīng)營模式。行業(yè)人才圈層超級個(gè)體模式的優(yōu)勢如下1：一個(gè)獵頭顧問等于一家10-100人的獵企，一個(gè)獵頭顧問可以完成傳統(tǒng)獵企的所有流程2：獲取人才的成本極低，無限等于0，因此可以結(jié)合內(nèi)薦、RPO、招聘BPO、獵頭、高端人才服務(wù)等多種泛招聘解決方案，因?yàn)槌杀镜停詧?bào)價(jià)特別靈活。3：因?yàn)槌杀緲O低，所以可以快速、大量BD優(yōu)質(zhì)客戶、特優(yōu)質(zhì)客戶優(yōu)勢4：流量大，獲取人才速度快，能夠大量獲取稀缺性人才5：變現(xiàn)方式多，多維度變現(xiàn)，包括8種不同等級的變現(xiàn)方式，大部分獵頭起碼可以做到四級變現(xiàn)，相比于獵頭公司，泛獵頭的收入可能只占總收入的三分之一，到三百分之一。一級變現(xiàn)：職業(yè)規(guī)劃、深度面試輔導(dǎo)二級變現(xiàn)：職場通用技能培訓(xùn)、行業(yè)技能培訓(xùn)三級變現(xiàn)：內(nèi)薦、RPO、招聘BPO、獵頭、高端人才四級變現(xiàn)：行業(yè)專家freework，包括SOHO專家類、項(xiàng)目外包類五級變現(xiàn)：商業(yè)鏈接、資源整合變現(xiàn)六級變現(xiàn)：創(chuàng)業(yè)、融資、VC、FA七級變現(xiàn)：政府科創(chuàng)孵化八級變現(xiàn)：人才終身價(jià)值服務(wù)6：人才作為一種資源，可以一輩子積累，無需不斷0-1，可以每一年收入在上一年基礎(chǔ)上幾何級增長

Business Model 4: Industry Talent Circle Super Individuals (★★★★★) Currently, in the mid to low end market of traditional headhunting, except for about 20% inherited by "small and beautiful" companies, 80% of the market will be replaced by new headhunting companies in 2024-2026. New headhunting companies mainly refer to new headhunting enterprises that transform into universal recruitment solutions, industry talent circle super individuals, and new headhunting enterprises. In terms of value to headhunting consultants, industry talent circle super individuals are the most likely business models to help headhunting consultants and headhunting enterprise owners achieve financial freedom. The advantages of the super individual model in the industry talent circle are as follows: 1. One headhunting consultant is equivalent to a hunting enterprise with 10-100 people, and one headhunting consultant can complete all the processes of traditional hunting enterprises. 2. The cost of acquiring talent is extremely low, infinite equals zero, so it can be combined with various general recruitment solutions such as internal recommendation, RPO, recruitment BPO, headhunting, and high-end talent services. Due to the low cost, the quotation is particularly flexible. 3: Due to its extremely low cost, it can quickly and efficiently acquire a large number of high-quality BD and ultra high quality clients. 4. It has the advantages of high traffic and fast talent acquisition, which enables the acquisition of scarce talents in large quantities. 5. There are multiple monetization methods, including 8 different levels of monetization, and most headhunters can achieve at least level 4 monetization. Compared to headhunting companies, the revenue of pan headhunters may only account for one-third to one-third of the total revenue. Level 1 monetization: career planning, in-depth interview coaching Level 2 monetization: general skills training in the workplace, industry skills training Level 3 monetization: internal recommendation, RPO, recruitment BPO, headhunting, high-end talent Level 4 monetization: industry experts freework, including SOHO experts and project outsourcing Level 5 monetization: commercial links, resource integration monetization Level 6 monetization: entrepreneurship, financing, VC, FA Level 7 monetization: government science and technology incubation Level 8 monetization: lifelong value service for talent Level 6: talent as a resource, can accumulate for a lifetime without the need for continuous 0-1, and can exponentially increase annual income on the basis of the previous year

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